주식 투자에 성공하려면
머니 사이클부터 알자!

돈의 성질은 무엇일까? 이 책은 투자에서 가장 중요한 요소인 돈의 성질을 이해해야 투자 시장에서 살아남을 수 있다고 말한다. 여기저기 돌아다니고, 도저히 잡을 수 없을 것 같은 ‘돈’이지만 자세히 살펴보면 그 흐름에도 규칙성이 있다. 지은이는 경제 순환에 따른 이러한 돈의 움직임을 ‘머니 사이클’이라고 부른다. 수십 년간의 주식 투자 노하우를 바탕으로 주식 투자 전문가과정을 운영하고 있고, 대학에서 강의 및 유튜브와 각종 경제 방송에 출연하는 지은이의 투자 경험을 최대한 살려 경제 상황에 맞춰 머니 사이클을 설명한다.

머니 사이클의 움직임과 각 경제 상황, 그리고 다른 자산 시장에 대한 이해가 가능하도록 실전적인 측면에서 다루고 있고, 다소 어려울 수 있는 경제 흐름을 이해하기 쉽게 설명한다. 경제 이론서보다는 철저히 투자자 입장에서 경험을 바탕으로 꼭 알아야 할 내용만 엄선했기에 이 책 한 권만 제대로 이해해도 실전 투자에 큰 도움이 될 것이다. 거대 자본의 흐름을 이해하고 따라가다 보면 어느새 실패하지 않는 성공 투자에 한 걸음 가까워져 있을 것이다.

프롤로그·································································································4

PART 01
주식, 투자, 산업, 경제, 기회, 머니 사이클에 미치는 요소들

금리 - 경기의 방향을 알게 해주는 기준금리···················································16
주식 투자 TIP 금리를 인상하면 나쁘다. 과연 그럴까?·····························21
미국 연방준비제도의 정책을 잘 이해하자···············································22
금리 인하 시 효과 - 대세 상승의 시그널················································25
금리 정책과 경제 순환·······································································30
주식 투자 TIP 은행은 고금리를 좋아한다. 과연 그럴까?··························33

환율 - 환율로 보는 거대 투자자들의 심리·····················································34
미국의 금리가 인상되면 달러 가치는 오른다?··········································40
미국 10년물 국채 가격 등락을 통한 환율의 움직임 파악하기·······················44
주식 투자 TIP 환율과 주식 시장 등락은 반비례한다·······························47

원자재 - 실질 경제 상황을 알 수 있는 원자재 가격··········································48
1배럴은 몇 리터고, 얼마일까?·····························································51
원자재 가격과 주식 시장의 등락··························································53
물가가 오르는 이유와 앞으로는 오르기 쉽지 않은 이유······························54
주식 투자 TIP 원자재에 투자하면 좋다. 과연 그럴까?·····························58
채권 - 자산의 흐름을 알 수 있는 채권의 움직임··············································59
채권 수익률이란··············································································62
국채는 기준금리와 연동된다·······························································65
미국 정부의 채권 발행은 채권국에게 고통을 전이하는 행위·························67
미국의 경기 상황을 예측할 수 있는 예언 지표! 장단기 채권 스프레드·············68
미국의 경기 상황과 장단기 채권 스프레드의 역전금리·······························72
주식 투자 TIP 인플레이션과 채권의 관계············································76

세계 정세 - 투자자는 관심의 폭을 넓게 가져야 한다········································77
인플레이션, 스테그플레이션, 디플레이션, 리플레이션······································80

PART 02
머니 사이클과 경제 순환

1단계 경기 회복기···················································································88
미국 기준금리 인상 시작(저금리 기조 유지)················································88
FED 양적 완화 정책·········································································90
부동산 가격의 상승··········································································92
외국인 장세 - 개인 투자자의 무관심·····················································94
주식 투자 전략 성장주 IT 저점 매수 기회·············································96

2단계 경기 성장기···················································································97
실적 장세 - 이동평균선이 정배열을 이루는 강세장···································97
기관 투자자 그룹의 장세····································································99
부동산 가격의 상승세····································································· 100
원자재 가격의 상승세 - 인플레이션 정상 작동 중··································· 101
FED의 금리와 통화 정책································································· 102
달러 약세 지속과 각국의 환율 강세····················································· 104
주식 투자 전략 가치주, 홀딩 전략 지속············································· 106

3단계 경기 안정기(정점)·········································································· 107
개인 투자자 그룹의 주식 시장 참여 확대·············································· 108
미국의 기준금리 인상으로 인한 금융 비용 상승세··································· 110
부동산 시장의 과열 및 둔화······························································ 111
FED의 통화정책 - 긴축 정책 종료····················································· 114
미국의 장단기 채권 스프레드의 변화를 예의 주시 - 역전금리···················· 115
경기 과열에 따른 둔화 우려······························································ 118
원자재 가격 강세에서 약세로 전환······················································ 119
급등주, 테마주, 우선주가 극성·························································· 120
각종 금융상품 가입의 증가······························································· 122
안전 자산을 선호하기 시작······························································· 125
환율 강세 및 각국의 환율 약세 전환···················································· 127
폭풍 전야···················································································· 128
주식 투자 전략 현금 비중 확대, 대형주 위주, 미국 주식························· 130

4단계 경기 붕괴 - 다시 시작되는 투자 시계················································· 131
버블 붕괴 현실화(블랙 스완)······························································· 131
미국 기준금리의 급격한 인하···························································· 134
미국 연준의 양적 완화 정책 재가동····················································· 135
급격한 환율 변동성········································································ 137
원자재 가격 및 유가 변동성 심화······················································· 138
미국 장단기 채권 스프레드의 ‘+’ 전환 준비·········································· 140
주식 투자 전략 자산 버블 붕괴로 최저가 매수 기회······························ 141
제2차 버블 그리고 자산 사이클의 새로운 시작······································· 143

5단계 경기 하락기················································································· 146
주식 시장의 진정··········································································· 146
환율의 안정·················································································· 150
각국의 양적 완화 진행····································································· 151
미국 장단기 채권 스프레드의 약세 유지··············································· 153
실물 경기는 최악인데 주식 시장은 상승하는 이유··································· 154
주식 투자 전략 대형주 위주, 미국 주식 시장 상승세 유지······················· 157
금값 폭등···················································································· 159

6단계 경기 둔화 & 침체기······································································· 162
기업의 본격적인 구조조정 진행························································· 162
부동산 가격의 하락세····································································· 164
주식 투자 전략 경기 방어주의 상승세··············································· 166
각국 중앙은행의 양적 완화 정책과 저금리 정책 기조 유지························· 167
재테크 무관심의 시기····································································· 167
경기 침체와 물가 상승 둔화······························································ 169

7단계 경기 침체 & 바닥 시기··································································· 171
양적 완화 정책 혹은 저금리 정책 기조는 진행 중···································· 171
금값의 하락과 원자재 가격의 상승 기지개············································ 173
각 정부의 실물 경기 부양책(부동산 시장 활성화)········································ 175
다시 시작되는 경기 사이클······························································· 176
새로운 10년 주기는 새로운 부의 시작이다··················································· 179
경제 순환과 머니 사이클, 그리고 우리 인생의 주기········································ 183
경기 순환이 일어나는 근본적인 이유는 무엇일까?········································· 189
각 경기별 주식 투자 전략은 수급을 이해하면 된다········································· 193

PART 03
주식, 투자, 산업, 경제, 기회, 머니 사이클에 미치는 영향들

인플레이션에 대한 이해와 투자 전략(통화량)················································· 198
돈은 살아 움직이는 생물이다··································································· 201
자본주의의 본질은 미국 주식 시장의 상승에서 답을 찾을 수 있다······················ 205
미국 연준의 통화 정책의 본질은 물가 안정에 있다. 그런데 왜?·························· 207
돈이 시중에 있는지 아니면 은행에 있는지 알아야 한다···································· 210
기업은 인플레이션을 먹고 자란다······························································ 214
물가에 미치는 주요 3요소······································································· 216
미래 인플레이션의 가능성은 있을까?························································· 219
경기 둔화시기에는 사기, 작전이 극성을 부린다············································· 222
신규 태동산업의 성장 필수 조건과 주식 시장················································ 225
통상적으로 조정장은 따로 있다································································ 229
환율과 경제 흐름, 그리고 주식 시장··························································· 234
전쟁이 주식 시장에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?·················································· 237
신경제 체제에서는 모두가 투자자이며 쉽게 부자가 될 수 있다·························· 240
주식 시장과 부동산 중 어느 자산 시장이 경제와 소비에 더 영향을 줄까?············· 244
인플레이션 유형별 자산 시장의 수익률 비교 및 해석······································ 246
한국에서 자산 증식은 어떻게 하면 좋을까?·················································· 251
각 자산의 흐름도 - 채권, 주식, 경제, 부동산················································ 255
부동산, 주식, 산업의 주기성 중첩 시·························································· 258
메릴린치의 투자 시계, 그리고 4차 산업······················································ 263
주식 투자는 수급을 볼 줄 알아야 한다························································ 267
투자 플러스 투자 심리학에서 언론 매체란?··············································· 273

안동훈

돈의 흐름을 읽고,
주식 시장의 비밀을 밝히는 책

돈이 어디로 모이고 흩어지는지 이해하면 성공적인 주식 투자가 가능하지 않을까? 이 책은 총 3장에 걸쳐 돈의 성질을 이해하고, 그 흐름을 살펴본다.

1장 ‘주식, 투자, 산업, 경제, 기회, 머니 사이클에 미치는 요소들’에서는 금리, 환율, 원자재, 채권에 대한 개념을 알아보고, 더불어 세계 정세와 인플레이션, 스테그플레이션, 디플레이션, 리플레이션에 대해서도 살펴본다.

2장 ‘머니 사이클과 경제 순환’에서는 경기 회복기, 경기 성장기, 경기 안정기, 경기 붕괴기, 경기 하락기, 경기 둔화와 침체기, 경기 침체기와 바닥 시기, 총 7단계로 나눠 경기의 흐름을 살펴본다. 뿐만 아니라 경기 순환과 머니 사이클, 우리의 인생 주기를 연결시켜 생각해보는 기회도 가진다.

3장 ‘주식, 투자, 산업, 경제, 기회, 머니 사이클에 미치는 영향들’에서는 물가에 미치는 3요소, 환율과 주식 시장, 전쟁이 주식 시장에 미치는 영향, 주식 투자에서 수급 파악의 중요성, 한국에서 자산 증식을 하기 좋은 방법 등에 대해 알아본다. 특히, 책 곳곳에 주식 투자 팁, 주식 투자 전략, 투자 플러스 등의 코너를 마련해 실전 투자에 유용한 정보를 알차게 담았다.